The publication of the 1st estimate of the growth of the French economy in the 4th quarter comes after several other very unfavourable indicators have been made public: a sharp rise in unemployment over the same period, the persistence of a trade deficit over the last twelve months close to 90 billion euros, the continued fall in housing starts (30% in two years) all in a context of accumulation of public deficits and record debt. The only good news concerns inflation: it rose to 1.4% in January over one year and makes France one of the best pupils in ...

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At a time when the new French government is looking for measures to redress the public accounts, the publication of job creation figures in the United States (256,000) well above what was expected (190,000) has caused a rise in long-term interest rates that has had an impact on Europe. With growth and inflation both above 2% and near full employment, since the unemployment rate is close to 4%, the Federal Reserve has little reason to lower its key rates in 2025. Four reductions of 0.25% were previously expected. Only one drop is now likely but in reality ...

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There have been no examples in the recent past when the world was going to be confronted with so many situations carrying major risks, on the political or economic level, the latter often stemming from the former. The will to power of some heads of State has been at the origin of tensions and even wars in recent years, as we have seen with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The discontent provoked by the rise in unemployment and inequality, notably attributed to globalisation, has led to a strong increase in extremist parties at each election, leading them to the gates ...

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