Archives May 2015

L’INSEE vient de publier sa première estimation de la croissance de l’économie française pour le premier trimestre : +0,6%. Ce chiffre, supérieur aux attentes, a été salué par des commentaires optimistes, voire enthousiastes, qui sont loin d’être justifiés. D’abord, l’estimation s’accompagne d’une révision en baisse du résultat du 4^ème trimestre : 0%. L’économie française a fini l’année 2014 à l’arrêt, et la conséquence a été immédiate sur l’emploi. Ensuite et surtout, le rebond, et l’INSEE le reconnait, r ...

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The latest and most representative figures concerning French economy have been released a week ago: housing construction, consumer goods, industrial production, fiscal situation, and international trade. They provide a more accurate picture of the situation in the first quarter of 2015 and the trend for this year. But these figures do not suggest a return to growth in France that is to say to a significant level of growth able to stabilize unemployment if not to reduce it.  The optimistic speeches of economists must be relativized. Of course, a 1% growth rate shows some improvement compared to the past stagnation ...

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Four months ago, we perceived some improvement. Following the publication of a drop in unemployment in January, we wondered, two months ago, if the recovery was finally here. So where are we really now? Commentators are optimistic. But this is a kind of forced optimism. Members of the government cannot react otherwise. The Minister of Labour is doing his job when he notices that, arithmetically, the monthly increase of unemployment in the first quarter is low, even if it is mostly due to the exceptional decrease observed in January.

Nevertheless one can tell him that the number of full-time job ...

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